Aug 25, 2015

Cory Diary : Market Fear

I have been working on my SUM on getting a good yield for past months but couldn't get a good discount on equity that i am comfortable with. Every time i look back to 2008 financial crisis price and i will shook my head. If i have done so and so, i would have been shaking leg like AK do. Well not exactly like him. But you know what i mean ?

Fast forward today, chance upon it, thanks to Shang Hai Stock bubbles and slow demand, the world in chaos. FEAR set in. What-if the market falls further ? A dead cat bounce ? Past data may not correlate to today ?

No Action is an Action too ! 

A check on the STI chart there is a huge gallop dive. I decided to take additional position in STI index. A spread out stake in Banks, Telco and the Blues. A calculated risk but likely help me support at least average 7% returns as the upside is very good for mid to long term even if it falls further.


Cory 20150825

Aug 2, 2015

Cory Diary : Portfolio Interim Result

The Eruption and Burst of Shang Hai Index reflects logically that poor earning of the economy will not be able to sustain the bull in the long run. While Singapore market avoided the crash so far, the sell down has been quite significant in recent weeks on specific counters.

Telcos have moved down a notch, O&G industry has been disastrous, Shippings have been lowering for a long time and Commodities have already fallen one after another. If we use STI 3370 (2nd Jan'15), YTD STI is almost 5% lower at friday close STI 3202.5. On average most investors are probably around -3% territory after dividends.

My Equity Portfolio performance has been mute. XIRR YTD +1.24%. Though still in positive territory thanks to Dividends (updated for privacy) . Even then i am not sure this will hold on in the next few weeks if we do not see positive news coming in.

Investment Segment wise as follow.



REIT has been holding up well so far which occupies a quarter of my stocks portfolio. I have little exposure to property counter which may change after election.

TELCO holds another quarter. So far net net they have been ok ytd after dividends.

BOND/PREFERENCE SHARES combined occupies another quarter of my portfolio. They are always the ones who provided the damping stability when the market is volatile. I do not believe in TRUSTs.

The remaining quarter invested in some niche services, retail industries and STI ETF. While i have scaled down significantly my O&G related counters in recent weeks, not all are done fast enough. This reminds me that i need to cut loss more swiftly due to Macro Factors coming in.


Cory 20150802



Jun 1, 2015

Cory Diary : Expenses needed for Retirement

First of all, calculation is futile if we do not consider Inflation and Reasonable Lifestyle. This is not saying Medical is not important but major expenses are covered by Insurance and/or CPF Medisave/shields. Getting the right coverage on hospitalization cost is important in my opinion. But trying to jack up your retirement amount to anticipate payment for serious illness that cost say $300 K direct from pocket is not meant to be as typical retirement plan that is realistic to be prepared for many.




For the start i will not retire till i meet my minimum requirement lifestyle. After working so hard for years and to retire like a "beggar" is not an aspiring thing to do. However i am willing to trade off some big ticket items to derive the core expenses.

Transportation
Doing away with private car, i should save a big chunk. Taxi is a reasonable alternative and do save a lot of hassle. For couple/family it may be more efficient to have a car. Do note the table is for a person but that doesn't mean we should go integral multiple by family size.

Holiday
Mainly regional. $2000 annual is high side. Reason being i like to take into consideration for more expensive occasional continental tour after accumulating unused expense allocation over the years. I thought this is needed lifestyle i wish to maintain.

Medical
This portion is more for normal sickness. Critical illness or hospitalization should have more dependency on insurance and CPF medical coverages. In-addition saving up some Emergency Fund i feel should be allocated but separate from the table.

Loan
For typical family i think likely to be our home or investment property. For Singaporean, most people should be able to pay off their HDB loan by mid 40s if they want to. They are quality housing at affordable prices.
For those with Condo or investment property, the outstanding loan maybe heavy but rental returns should cover. So for most this is well covered. There maybe those in negative territory but this is more like investment losses as to stock markets.

Children
Once they finish their studies, child should be on the own. It doesn't make sense to me that we have to care for them or their families in retirement table. Is your job to make sure they can as Parent. If they can't today, what's make you think they can after you are gone ? Often many parents are proud of their children. What use if they are scholar or doing well if they need you to support them ? Those parent who are truly proud is when their children is taking care of them and subsiding their retirement !

Retirement Sum
This works out to about $3200 monthly ( $38,400 annual ). Do adjust for inflation annually as the amount is today money. Assuming CPF life gives minimal $1 K. We only need about $2200. A $700 K Portfolio with just 4% returns would have cover it easily. And we Only needs $450K for 6% annual returns ! And you are doing all this with your main capital still intact on the day you die. So theoretically, there is even more room for us to play with after topping up for inflation.

Enjoyable Retirement is not hard if we are willing to let nature takes it course. Well, at least for Singaporeans.

Cory
1st June 2015