Dec 17, 2014

Cory Diary : SEMBCORP IND

Oil ! Oil ! Oil! Crashed. Many people may have thank Saudi Arabia that we have an Oil Crisis except this time is for lower price. As a matter of fact, Shale Oil and Gas is the cause of main disruption with maturing technology that break OPEC monopoly who works in "cahoots" with few other key players that not always play fair.

Is there gem right now ? Let's me try to investigate SEMBCORP IND today.

Capital Gain
The worst SBI price is about 2.11 during 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This is not. A lower oil price is good for the economy. We have 10 years of growth when oil price stays low. However it can be a nervous investment for the new investors who never see it for Oil Support Industry. The Monthly Chart indicate 4.0-4.1 range as resistance. And appears reached. Weekly Chart will be in the region of 3.89. Down side seems limited i guess but market sentiments are hardly predictable. Volume is weakening.

Dividend Yield
2014 declared dividend ~ 0.22. That's on the high side i feel. Let's MOS to 0.15.
3.5% yield roughly. That's 35k for a Million for a rather consistent performing counter.

Business Segment
This is not fly by night company.

Sembcorp Industries was incorporated in Singapore on 20 May 1998 to act as the 
holding company for the merger between Singapore Technologies Industries 
Corporation (STIC) and Sembawang Corporation. On 22 July 1998, it assumed its 
present name. The merger was effective on 3 October 1998.


i. Utilities


ii. Marine & Offshore Engineering
This business focuses principally on repair, building and conversion of ships 
and rigs, and offshore engineering.



iii. Environmental Management


iv. Industrial Parks

After Thoughts
Every crisis can be an opportunity. Will this be one of them ?
Long term with a back mirror will we regret ?
What's the down side ?
Can it be a long term hold and forget ?
Time to nibble slowly ?

Here's my novice notes today. Hope you like it. May we prospers till we go to dust.


Cory
17th Dec 2014


4 comments:

  1. I just when all in on semb corp industries as i really like its utilities business that contributes half its earnings. I value the utilities business at 15 times earnings so a fair value of $3 per share, and we are paying only slighly over a dollar per share for the marine business that contributes 40% of profits, what a steal! I estimate fy14 dividends to be around 15-20 cents , cheers!

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  2. $4.00 also looks like a very strong support level. If it breaks below then gg, so be it, just hold a few years and slowly collect dividends. SCI is temasek back, if it goes too low like say $3 temasek might purchase shares from open market like how they did for olams, cheers

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  3. Felix, that's what I thought as well else may we all "Perish" with Temasek. :)

    ReplyDelete